Best Over/Under Win Totals for the 2021 NFL Season

The 2021 NFL season is fast approaching. Every team has sights on improving from last season, and some franchises will surprise the casual fan and seemingly skyrocket out of nowhere. Conversely, hype from a few high profile transactions can set unrealistic expectations for where a roster currently sits. Over/Under win totals give an opportunity to spot potential advantages in either scenario. Below are our best picks. Odds and win totals are as of the time of publication.

 

Seattle Seahawks: Over 9.5 Wins (-134)

 

 

Betting on the Seattle Seahawks to win double digit games is easy money this year. The 2020 Seahawks felt like they underperformed their high expectations due to a Wild Card exit, but that team was still able to win 12 games. That includes an ugly midseason four game stretch where they went 1-3. While Seattle hasn’t even been back to the NFC Championship since their Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots, they have been a model of regular season consistency since. Only once during the Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson era have the Seahawks finished with less than 10 wins.

 

The 2021 Seattle Seahawks retained all of their core players while losing only complimentary role players, with the most “significant” losses being wide receiver David Moore, defensive lineman Jarran Reed, and tight end Jacob Hollister. John Schneider did a great job of filling those holes and then some. More athletic and more proven NFL tight end Gerald Everett was signed. Rumors were flying that Wilson wanted more protection, so they brought in Gabe Jackson who allowed no sacks and had just three penalties in 1,062 offensive snaps. Speedy deep threat D’Wayne Eskridge was drafted in the second round to fill the third wide receiver role. Eskridge put up an impressive 768 yards and 8 touchdowns in just 6 games last season at Western Michigan. Wilson has a tendency to quickly develop chemistry and make everyone around him perform above expectations.

 

The Seattle defense should be improved as it now has studs at all three levels. Bobby Wagner has been a top 3 linebacker for the last decade, Carlos Dunlap recorded 5 sacks in just 8 games after being traded from the Bengals midseason, and Jamal Adams should return to his All-Pro self after having more time in a new system and shaking the injury bug that bit him in 2020. After struggling mightily on defense to start the season, Seattle played much better down the stretch. From weeks 10-17, Seattle never gave up more than 24 points in a game and they managed to hold 5 of their 8 opponents under 18 points in that same stretch.

 

One of the reasons that Seattle is at a low 9.5 wins is because of the tough division they’re in. The 49ers have an offensive genius as a head coach and roster with proven players all over the field. The Rams swung a massive trade to bring in Matthew Stafford in what should be a huge upgrade over Jared Goff. The Cardinals are formidable and have what might be the next true breakout star in Kyler Murray. However, Shanahan in four seasons has only one season finishing with more than six wins. The LA Rams lost their defensive coordinator who was behind the league’s number one defense last year, and the Cardinals are still a bunch of maybes with potential.

 

What the oddsmakers are overlooking is that Wilson and Carroll have always dealt with a tough division. In the last decade, the NFC West has seen Harbaugh’s 49ers (2011-2014), Arians’ Cardinals (2013-2017) and now McVay’s Rams and Shanhan’s 49ers since 2017. Playing against stiff competition is something the Seahawks are familiar with. Currently the line for the Rams and 49ers is at 10.5 wins, meaning Seattle is projected to finish third in their division. Seattle hasn’t finished worse than second in their division since Russell Wilson joined, and they’re the only team in the NFC West that hasn’t had a losing season in the Wilson era. Despite the competition, they’ve always managed to stay at the top.

 

Speaking of Russell Wilson, it helps that he hasn’t missed a game in his career, meaning the most crucial part of the team is available to play every Sunday. Wilson has set the league on fire since he entered the NFL, and he has led the Seattle offense to a top 11 finish in points scored every year of his career except for one. He’s a winner and a gamer which is why he and Carroll, despite their tension, are great for each other. It’s business as usual for Seattle, and they will be a playoff bound team with double digit wins.

 

Philadelphia Eagles: Under 6.5 Wins (+127)

 

 

The Philadelphia Eagles imploded in just about every way last year. Carson Wentz looked scared and disappointed his believers. Doug Pederson reportedly clashed with the front office and was micromanaged like a child. They showed no signs of life and essentially gave up against Washington in the final game of the season.

 

With all that disaster the Eagles went 4-11-1. Vegas is projecting 6.5 wins, but too much is unproven to suggest that they can hit the over and win an additional three games next year. The only significant offseason moves they made were signing Eric Wilson and Anthony Harris and drafting DeVonta Smith. Jalen Mills left for the Patriots, so the Anthony Harris signing is just filling a hole that was there without upgrading. DeVonta Smith could be a stud if the concerns about his weight are unfounded, but receivers on bad teams rarely have an impact when it comes to winning games. Even Calvin Johnson couldn’t do it.

 

To go on top of this, the Eagles hired a first time head coach and first time play caller Nick Sirianni to lead them out of the water. This might not be a big deal if he had some experienced staff around him, but Sirianni, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon are all under the age of 40. Furthermore, none of these three coaches have even been a coordinator for more than two seasons, let alone having absolutely zero years of head coaching experience. This will be Gannon’s first time calling plays as well, meaning both offense and defense will have brand new, first time play callers.

 

Making matters worse is that these coaches don’t have a plethora of talent to work with. The only proven above average offensive weapons on the roster are Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders.

 

The offensive line, once a strength, is now getting older and showing cracks. They gave up a disgusting 65 sacks last year, 15 more than the team with the second most. The defense is simply subpar, ranking in the bottom half of the league in takeaways, yards, and points. To combat all of this, the Eagles decided to spend the least amount of money of any team during this last NFL free agency period.

 

The NFC LEast lived up to its name last year, as Washington was able to win the division at a horrid 7-9. So while some bettors wanting to bet the over may point to the bad division, the picture is a little bit murkier than that. The Dallas Cowboys get their franchise quarterback back from a terrifying injury, and he has three stud wide receivers to throw to. The New York Giants and Washington finished below .500, but both started the season slowly and showed improvement.

 

After a 1-5 start, Washington finished the season 6-4 behind one of the scariest defensive lines in the league and Washington should have better quarterback play; instead of Dwayne Haskins and nearly dead Alex Smith, we get gunslingers Taylor Heinicke and Ryan Fitzpatrick. New York started out 0-5 and went on to go 6-5 despite having to play Colt McCoy at times. Daniels Jones is now surrounded by a ton of offensive talent, and the defense played much better towards the end. The division should at least be almost respectable this year, and the Eagles trended the opposite direction from every other team. After starting 3-4-1, Philadelphia managed to go just 1-7 down the stretch.

 

Even with a last place schedule, the Eagles still have to face the NFC South and the AFC West, meaning a good portion of their schedule is against elite teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City, or teams with high powered offenses with massive upside such as the Chargers, Raiders, and Falcons. Glancing at their schedule, no matchup can be marked as a definitive win. They’ll sneak out some wins, sure, but the worst teams they face are the Jets, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions. Outside of the Broncos, all those teams at least attempted to make big, aggressive moves in one way or another, and I believe all those clubs (except the Broncos) should finish with more wins than last year.

 

Fans will point to Jalen Hurts as a positive, and that could very well be true. But outside of a handful of quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, there really aren’t that many players who can will a team to a winning season. The fact of the matter is that the whole Eagles roster, front office management, and coaching is so bad that a few players can’t save the team. There’s simply too much unknown and too much unproven to believe that this team can win more games than last year.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 11.5 Wins (-127)

 

 

Tom Brady refuses to slow down. Last year he threw for 40 touchdowns for the second time in his career at an ancient 43 years of age. Brady asked for a little bit of help in New England, but instead he found a lot of help in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. In fact, they were able to retain all 22 starters from last year’s Super Bowl and all coordinators. Yes, that means he still has his great offensive line, studs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to (not to mention Antonio Brown), two good backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, a new pass catching back in Giovanni Bernard, and a defense with ridiculous speed at all three levels.

 

Furthermore, the Buccaneers were able to go 11-5 last year despite the shortened offseason due to COVID. This means less time to learn the playbook, less time to establish chemistry with your teammates, and less time to practice as a team. This was also in a division with a great New Orleans Saints team that they lost to twice in the regular season, but those Saints also had their Hall of Fame quarterback retire.

 

The 2020 Buccaneers had to work through some chemistry issues during the season. From weeks 9-12, they went a measly 1-3 and were sitting at a decent 7-5 overall. Then the bye week came, and Tampa Bay was able to fix their issues, finish the season 4-0, and continue that hot streak into the playoffs, where they went an additional 4-0 en route to a Super Bowl victory.

 

Tampa Bay’s 2021 schedule isn’t that difficult either. They currently have the 4th easiest strength of schedule of .465 based on last year’s results. Of their 17 games next year, only 6 of them are against teams that finished above .500. Those teams are the Bills, Dolphins, Saints, Colts, and Rams, and an argument could be made that at least three of those teams have some sort of question at quarterback.

 

Besides last year, a Tom Brady team has only finished with less than 12 wins once since 2010. The 2018 Patriots finished with 11 wins, just barely under the 11.5 wins needed to hit this year. This Tampa Bay team has far superior weapons on both sides of the ball. Given that the NFL is adding an extra game this year, that gives Tampa Bay just a little more extra room for error.

 

Brady is as durable as they come, having not missed a game due to injury since he tore his ACL in 2008. This might be the best team he has played on and he recently talked about how he would trade two Super Bowls for an undefeated season. He wants it, and I would never bet against Brady. Take the easy over of 11.5.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 6.5 Wins (-134)

 

 

Heading into the 2020 season, Jacksonville had a few reasons to be excited. Gardner Minshew showed flashes and had the moxie and marketability that made fans root for him while going a respectable 6-6. DJ Chark was coming off of a 1,000 yard season. After week 1 of 2020, it looked like they had carried their momentum. Minshew went 19-20 with 173 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 27-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts. It was fool’s gold and the wheels fell off, as the Jaguars managed to go 0-15 to finish the year.

 

Jacksonville getting a line of 6.5 is understandable but hasty considering Jacksonville only once in the last decade has finished with more than 6 wins. There’s more hope than in years past because Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are in town to turn the program around. However, college coaches, even elite ones, don’t have a track record of success in the NFL, and rookie quarterbacks rarely save a franchise from their first year on. Not everyone inspires hope the same way Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson.

 

Trevor Lawrence has a chance to be the savior the Jaguars need, but there were rumblings among the draft communities that Lawrence wasn’t the best quarterback in this draft, let alone a true generational talent like Luck or Peyton Manning. The offensive line is the most expensive as they pay offensive lineman at $53.4 million, ranked 25th in run blocking according to PFF, and allowed the 8th most sacks. This is bad news, especially for a quarterback who struggles when pressured like Lawrence has. Adding Walker Little in the draft could help, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy throughout his college career.

 

Since 2016, thirteen quarterbacks have been taken in the top 10 picks. Of those quarterbacks, only five of those respective teams have finished with 7 wins or more in that quarterbacks’ rookie year. However, one of those quarterbacks was Patrick Mahomes who sat his first year behind Alex Smith. The four quarterbacks who played significant snaps and whose team won more than 7 games were Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert. All of those teams had much more talent than the current Jacksonville roster. This team is much closer to the 2019 Arizona Cardinals than the 2020 Los Angeles Chargers. They have a small handful of solid-to-good players to build around, but most everything else is unproven talent with medium upside rather than the Chargers’ roster of two great wide receivers and a defense lead by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

 

Speaking of the Jaguars’ 2020 roster, the horribleness of it can’t be overstated. Just about every position group needs a massive overhaul. A core of C.J. Henderson, Myles Jack, Josh Allen, and James Robinson is a good start, but they’re all young and it’s simply not a big enough or proven enough group to lead this team to a winning season. Jacksonville ranked 31st in team DVOA, 27th in offensive DVOA, and 31st in defensive DVOA, showing just how putrid they were at all levels. To address this, Jacksonville proceeded to do next to nothing in free agency, even with the $39.2 million of cap room they currently have, which is most in the league.

 

When it comes to offensive weapons, Chark is thought to be a bright spot but he took a big step back in 2020 after cracking 1,000 yards in 2019. That same year in 2019, however, he only had three games with more than 80 yards. Laviska Shenault showed flashes and has great versatility, but he has yet to crack 100 yards in a game and needs to show better consistency. Marvin Jones is solid and a good no. 2 receiver, but he’s been banged up the last few years and has typically performed better when not being the first option in the passing game. Travis Etienne has been taking reps at wide receiver, but expecting a running back to come in and save the wide receiver corps immediately is far-fetched. James Robinson had a fantastic rookie year but it remains to be seen how he’ll split time with Eitienne.

 

Despite getting a last place schedule, the Jaguars are still 18th in strength of schedule. They have tough opponents in the Indianapolis Colts twice, the Tennessee Titans twice, the 49ers, Bills, Seahawks, LA Rams, Dolphins, and Patriots. Having Houston in their division helps, but the only other games where they can be marked as probable wins are the Broncos and Jets.

 

The win total at 6.5 is set due to the hype of Lawrence and Meyer. While these are big additions, both have yet to prove they can actually operate at the NFL level. Jacksonville’s roster will hold them back at least one year, and they’ll fail to win 7 or more games for the 10th time in the last 11 years.

 

Buffalo Bills: Over 11 Wins (-106)

 

 

Buffalo has been steadily ascending since bringing in Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane back in 2017. They were able to finish 9-7 that year and sneak into the wildcard round with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, thus ending Buffalo’s 18 year playoff drought. Beane and McDermott understood that Taylor and that Bills team had a ceiling, so they traded up for Josh Allen in the 2018 draft and haven’t looked back since.

 

Allen has improved in every significant statistical category every year since his rookie season, among which are completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and quarterback rating. This has been reflected in Buffalo’s performance the last three seasons, as they’ve gone 6-10, 10-6, and 13-3 in the Josh Allen era. Buffalo has also improved its total yards and points on offense each year, with the 2020 season placing them in the top two of both categories.

 

Buffalo’s offense is the driving force behind their team and will be the main reason for their success. Their efficiency took a massive leap as well, as the Buffalo Bills jumped from 24th at 1.63 points per drive in 2019 to 3rd at 2.80 points per drive. This coincides with Pro Football Focus’ grade of 5th overall for the Buffalo offense and an impressive finish of 5th in pass blocking. Couple this with a wide receiver core that ranked 3rd, and the weapons and pass protection look like they’ll have the tools in place to remain elite.

 

One of the biggest reasons for Allen’s success is Brian Daboll, the team’s offensive coordinator. Unlike most young OCs that lead great offenses, Daboll hasn’t been poached to be a head coach yet which means that Allen has another year to develop in a system he has excelled in. Their offensive personnel remains largely unchanged. Emmanuel Sanders will replace John Brown, and he’s a more versatile receiver anyway.

 

Defensively, Buffalo has been above average with just a handful of holes to fill. As long as they can keep pace and improve in a couple key areas, Buffalo has every chance to play great complimentary football. The 2020 Bills finished 12th in defensive DVOA, all while finishing with just the 13th fewest pressures and ranking 15th in sacks. To address their pass rush, they spent their top two picks on Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham, both edge rushers who have great upside.

 

Buffalo has the 23rd hardest strength of schedule with cupcake matchups such as the New York Jets twice, Jacksonville, Houston, and Detroit. Buffalo has fantastic leadership in Beane and McDermott who have built this roster the right way and continue to make slam dunk draft picks and free agency signings. Bet on Buffalo to continue their ascent to the top of the AFC.

 

Minnesota Vikings: Over 9 Wins (+125)

 

 

Being a Minnesota Vikings fan for the Mike Zimmer era has been incredibly frustrating for everyone in the state. They consistently yo-yo back and forth, taking three steps forward one year to then take two steps back, to then take three steps forward, and so forth. This reflects in their record, as Zimmer has simultaneously never had back to back winning seasons while never having consecutive seasons finishing with less than 8 wins in his seven years of head coaching. If history is to repeat itself, then the Vikings should rebound from last year’s 7 win season to finish above 10 wins.

 

The Vikings have been consistently good with Zimmer with both flashes of greatness and incompetence. Last year was largely incompetence, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. Despite being labeled as a defensive genius, Zimmer’s defense was atrocious last year. They gave up the 9th most first downs, 10th most passing touchdowns, 9th most rushing touchdowns, 6th most total yards, 4th most total points, and 4th most points per drive. In everything that mattered, they were bottom 10.

 

Outside of the 2020 season, the Vikings have ranked no worse than 11th in points and 14th in yards defensively since Zimmer took over. They should rebound and finish much closer to those ranks than the abysmal 29th in points and 27th in yards they had last year, which was the main reason for their subpar record in 2020. Considering the track records of Zimmer’s defenses and general manager Rick Spielman’s ability to build great rosters, Minnesota should be able to reload quickly.

 

Much of this can be attributed to a tight cap situation and therefore having to let go of key players. Among their losses on defense in the 2020 offseason were Everson Griffen, Andrew Sendejo, Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes, and Linval Joseph. To combat this, Minnesota spent 9 draft picks in the 2020 draft on their defense. Zimmer has a great knack for coaching up young defensive players, and another year in the system should help the young talent take a step forward after an ugly 2020. Additionally, Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson were brought in this offseason giving Zimmer a couple extra toys to work with. Danielle Hunter, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, is also coming back after missing all of 2020 due to a neck injury.

 

Quarterback Kirk Cousins is still leading the offense where there are much fewer question marks. They return stud perennial 1,000 yard wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to go along with an elite running back in Dalvin Cook. Perhaps their biggest weakness on offense was their pass protection, which ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus. Spielman addressed that hole by selecting Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis in the 2021 NFL Draft, two highly regarded offensive lineman that should immediately upgrade their pass protection woes.

 

Even with poor protection and an immobile quarterback, Minnesota still ranked 11th in points offensively, 4th in yards, 5th in yards per play, and had the 3rd most first downs in 2020. Cousins has been solid for the Vikings during his tenure, and the offense has generally held up their end of the bargain the last two years. If the rookie linemen can step in immediately and provide better protection, Cousins can be even more surgical.

 

The Vikings have the fifth toughest schedule, but it helps that they play in a mediocre at best division outside of the Packers. It also helps that of Minnesota’s six toughest non-division opponents, four of those games are at home where stadiums will be packed and rowdy (hopefully) without COVID restrictions. Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Cleveland will have to be away from their loud crowds.

 

The Vikings are a well rounded team with smart leaders in place, and that has me believing they’ll have a bounce back year like they do every other year. They can be compared with the Cam Newton Panthers: always so close to putting it all together, yet just not able to have back to back years of positive momentum and winning seasons. Minnesota is much closer to being the team that made the divisional round in 2019 than the sub .500 team of last year. The few tweaks made will have them playing in January again.

 

Over/Under totals are from DraftKings. All stats are from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus. Roster transactions are from Over the Cap.