2021 NFL Season Bold Predictions
Every year in the NFL there are unpredictable surprises and disappointments that come out of left field. So much change happened this offseason that we’re bound to have more than a few unseen outcomes. Here are some bold predictions for the 2021 season.
The Houston Texans Become the First 0-17 Team
The Texans are the biggest mess in the NFL this year and there is no hope on the horizon. Deshaun Watson had his best year as a pro, but the Texans still only won 4 games as a team. It was found out that Watson has 57% more sexual assault allegations (22) than wins the last two years (14). He’s not playing this year and was already refusing to play for Houston before any of this started.
Their roster was decimated over the last few years after the trade of DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson, and also by trading too much for Laremy Tunsil and Bradin Cooks. Now J.J. Watt is gone, and their defense has more holes after finishing bottom 6 defensively in yards, points, first downs, yards per play, and turnovers.
New head coach David Culley comes from the Ravens, where he was the passing game coordinator, wide receivers coach and assistant head coach. He was also the wide receivers coach in Kansas City from 2013-2016, a stretch that included a season where a single wide receiver failed to catch a touchdown pass. That trend of subpar wide receiver play under his watch continued in Baltimore, as no receiver cracked 800 yards or 60 receptions last year.
Culley doesn’t have a whole lot to work with either. Both the wide receiver and running back rooms are crowded yet ineffective. Starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor hasn’t started more than 3 games since 2017, and he takes over a team that finished in the bottom half of the NFL in points scored. Their roster is worse than last year, and that team won 4 games.
The Texans to win 0 games is currently +1200.
Justin Jefferson Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards
Last year Minnesota Vikings rookie Justin Jefferson took the league by storm to the tune of 1,400 receiving yards on just 88 catches. COVID threw the offseason into flux, and Jefferson had to go through some rookie pains without the benefit of a preseason. He had 5 games with less than 50 yards, including his first two games where he achieved a grand total of 70 yards. Jefferson still ranked 6th in yards per game and 4th in receiving yards despite that.
Even more impressive is that Jefferson ranked 18th in targets, behind players like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Robby Anderson. Good players, no doubt, but they don’t have the pure talent Jefferson possesses. Jefferson had 7 games with 5 or less targets, but the Vikings will be sure to increase his workload after his impressive breakout year.
Jefferson is a great all-around receiver, but his ability to take the top off of defenses will help him rack up easy yards. He ranked 9th in yards per reception (15.9) and 4th in yards per target (11.2), showcasing his ability to be one of the best deep threats in the game.
It helps too that Adam Thielen has been a little banged up the last two years. If Thielen misses more time, that means more targets for Jefferson. You can currently take this prop for +1400.
The San Francisco 49ers Finish Last in the NFC West
The 49ers are the Cowboys of the west coast, and they get unreasonably favored by Vegas. San Francisco is favored to win the division at +190 odds when a.) the 49ers have finished in 3rd place or worse in 3 of Kyle Shanahan’s 4 years, and b.) the Rams and Seahawks have been legitimate Super Bowl contenders for multiple years now.
It doesn’t help the 49ers that every other team in their division has a more settled quarterback situation. Matthew Stafford finally has a team around him. If the Rams can win 10 games with Goff, they can win 10+ with Stafford. Seattle has yet to finish worse than 2nd place in the NFC West since Russell Wilson took over. While failing to win consistently, at least the Cardinals have a proven young quarterback in Kyler Murray. The 49ers are dealing with an injury-prone game manager and a quarterback who needs time to develop.
Speaking of the Cardinals, I really believe that they can finish better than the 49ers. They did that last year, and Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is more desperate this year. He needs to win now. Arizona has more proven weapons in DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, and the defense adds J.J. Watt while getting yearly double digit sack machine Chandler Jones back from injury. The 49ers’ top three options all have worrisome injury histories and missed time in 2020.
The 49ers never avoid injuries, they lost their defensive coordinator, and they play in the toughest division in football. Shanahan hasn’t led the 49ers to a top 19 offense in points scored more than once. They’ve been mediocre at best outside of their Super Bowl appearance and play in the NFL’s toughest division.
San Francisco to finish last in their division is currently +450.
Andy Dalton Starts for at Least 9 Games
Bears head coach Matt Nagy has stated multiple times that Andy Dalton will start week 1. The crowd and national media want Justin Fields to start, but Nagy comes from Kansas City where he participated in the Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes mentorship. Smith was still playing passable football for Kansas City, and having Mahomes study the position for a year benefited him greatly. Mahomes popped off and threw for 50 touchdowns. He was raw, but he has the work ethic and rare physical gifts.
Enter Fields, a raw quarterback with mega-talent and a great work ethic. Dalton is a pro’s pro and has been around long enough to know what to expect from NFL defenses. That’s where Fields lacks at the moment. According to Nagy, “there’s a lot of defenses that we’re seeing that are high school Harry defenses” in the preseason meaning that Fields hasn’t actually seen disguises and rolling coverages that NFL defenses can offer.
Nagy doesn’t want to risk Fields’ development, and as long as Dalton can keep the Bears around .500 and in playoff contention then Nagy will keep his job. This is the same Red Rifle that took the Bengals to the playoffs five years in a row and has a career winning record. Dalton went 4-5 in his starts with the Cowboys last year, and this years’ Chicago Bears are undoubtedly more talented and better coached than that Cowboys team. If Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky can take the Bears to the playoffs, then Dalton can start more than half the season while keeping the Bears in November contention.
All odds are from FanDuel. All stats are from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
