Best Bets for NFL Week 4
Up 1.78 betting units since the start of the season
2 Pick Parlay: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline @ Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline @ New England Patriots (-131) (2.5 Units)
The Chiefs have looked a little concerning this year, but they also haven’t had an easy game where they can shine. Conversely, the Eagles have been one of the worst teams in the league. While Kansas City is doing horrible ATS dating back to last season, this is still the same team that has back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, won at least 12 games each of the last six seasons, and hasn’t lost more than 2 in a row since Patrick Mahomes took over. The Eagles have only beat a woeful Atlanta team and just got shredded by the Cowboys in a 20 points loss. The Chiefs to win is as easy as it gets.
For Sunday Night Football we get what should be a more interesting storyline rather than an actually interesting game. Brady looks like he’s the winner of the divorce after winning the last Super Bowl while the Patriots are just 8-11 since Brady’s departure. New England is struggling heavily to move the ball as they average just 4.8 yards per play, 6th worst in the NFL. This should be the game where Todd Bowles and the defense put it all together against an easier offense, and New England simply lacks the offensive firepower the Bucs have. Brady is seeking revenge for last week’s embarrassment and against his old organization. He got his desired weapons, and he’s about to unleash them to spite Bill Belichick. I wouldn’t bet against Tom returning to the homeland.
Tennessee Titans -7 @ New York Jets (-110) (1.5 Units)
Tennessee got off to a rough start this year, but facing the Cardinals, Seahawks, and then Colts would be a tough gauntlet for anyone. It took the Titans a while to gel with Julio Jones arriving and a new offensive coordinator. After getting outscored 62-22 in their first six quarters of football, the Titans have roared back and outscored their opponents 49-22. Now they finally get a break in the New York Jets.
Julio Jones and AJ Brown potentially missing time would be scarier if they actually played most of the game against the Colts. Julio only played 50% of the snaps while Brown just 12%. They were dealing with nagging injuries heading into the game, and the Titans leaned on Derrick Henry yet again. It worked, as Henry had 28 carries and they beat the Colts, one of the best overall rosters in the NFL, by 9. If other receivers step up like they did last week, then the Titans will be more than fine.
The Jets don’t have much going for them right now. They sport one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, have scored the least amount of points, and have the third least yards. New York hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 1 and has the 4th highest turnover percentage. They’ve been even worse than Vegas suggests, as they’re 0-3 ATS this season. The closest they’ve lost a game has been by 5 points, and that was against a new look Panthers roster still trying to gel. Since then, the Jets have been outscored 51-6. Jets fans, it’s another rough season.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Over 45.5 (+100) (1 Unit)
This low number is incredibly attractive and surprising given how good Lamar Jackson has been throughout his career and how bad the Baltimore defense has played so far. The Ravens only scored 19 last week in Detroit, but Marquise Brown dropped two easy touchdowns. Plus, it was just the 7th time since 2019 that the Ravens scored less than 24, whereas they’ve had 17 games go over 30 points in that same time frame. They came out flat after such an emotional win against the Chiefs, but expect them to rebound.
Even if Teddy Bridgewater isn’t the most dynamic quarterback, he still has great players to throw to. Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant have stepped up in Jerry Jeudy’s absense. Steady Teddy has been great this year, throwing for 4 touchdowns without a turnover. He’s also been aggressively attacking downfield as evidenced by his average depth of target of 9.5 yards. The duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have rumbled and tumbled to a combined 148 scrimmage yards per game and provide a real threat on the ground. As a result, the Broncos have scored at least 23 in all their games this year.
The Ravens defense is bottom 9 defensively in points, yards per play, first downs, and yards. They have the 5th least sacks, the 5th most missed tackles, 3rd most passing yards given up, and 3rd most yards after catch allowed. As long as Bridgewater can deliver an on-time on-target throws, his playmakers can do their damage in the open field. While the Broncos defense has looked great, we also can’t fully judge them based on their bad sample of teams. The Ravens offense has been dominant for a few years now, even against great defenses. I’m expecting them to have to carry the load again, a task Lamar has never shied away from.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Under 50.5 (-110) (0.5 Units)
The return of Dak and the trade for Sam Darnold were the two biggest storylines for these teams entering the season, but the real difference maker for these NFC squads are their defenses. The Panthers have particularly been impressive, as they lead the league in yards allowed per carry (2.6), pressures (47) and sacks (14). Carolina is fast and athletic at all 3 levels of their defense, as young stars Jeremy Chinn, Brian Burns, Shaq Thompson, and Haason Reddick continue their improvement. They’ve allowed an average of just 10 points per game so far.
Dallas has also improved their dreadful defense with their biggest moves being the hiring of Dan Quinn and drafting Micah Parsons out of Penn State. The dividends have been immediate as Quinn’s unit has only surrendered 24 points per game so far while ranking 15th in DVOA. In general this Dallas defense looks much more decisive, confident and aggressive than their recent history.
Another positive is that both teams rank in the top half of the league in time of possessions per drive and in the bottom half in red zone offense, meaning that plenty of time will get burnt out while settling for field goals. It’s an even tougher task for Darnold as Christian McCaffrey, his second leading receiver, is injured and tight end Dan Arnold were just traded. Panthers games have averaged 33 total points so far and the under is 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
All stats are from Pro Football Reference and Covers. All odds are from DraftKings.
