Up 3.06 betting units since the start of the season
3 Pick Parlay: New England Patriots -2.5 vs. New York Jets; Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions; Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Houston Texans (3 Units) (+108)
New England has won their last 10 contests against the Jets by an average of 19.9 points and all of them by at least 3. It’s an opponent that Belichick knows well and knows how to both defend and attack. There’s also Belichick’s 23-5 record against rookie quarterbacks as New England’s head coach. The Jets have already made solid improvements this year, but Mac Jones has also been playing better as the year has went on and their offense doesn’t look incompetent like last year’s. Taking the better roster, better coach, and proven history is too good to pass up.
In a Matthew Stafford revenge game against the Detroit Lions, the Rams should win handily. Jared Goff has been playing spooked since at least the middle of last season while LA is one of the best teams in the league. The Lions are worse than the Giants, and the Rams just obliterated them 38-11. Detroit is coming off of an embarrassing 34-11 defeat at the hands of the Bengals, and all 11 points were scored in the fourth quarter when the match was all but over. LA will easily cover the 5 points here against one of the worst and youngest rosters in the NFL.
The Cardinals are the sole undefeated team and deservedly so. They have everything it takes to win in today’s league: an explosive quarterback, an array of weapons, and nasty pass rushers that harass teams when playing from behind. The Texans rank bottom 3 in points, yards, and turnovers on offense while ranking bottom 8 in points and yards. Outside of a lone win against Jacksonville, they’ve looked terrible and Davis Mills is set to start yet again this week. The Cardinals average margin of victory has been 14.2 points, while the Texans have lost their games by an average of 19.2 points. They’ll win by more than a touchdown at home.
Indianapolis Colts +4 @ San Francisco 49ers (1 Unit) (-110)
The record may not show it, but the Colts are playing opponents tough and have one of the best overall rosters in the NFL. Carson Wentz has been playing well this year and has eliminated those nasty turnovers that plagued him in Philadelphia. He’s got just a single interception on the year to go along with 9 touchdown passes, including a three game streak with at least two. Indianapolis has gone 2-1 in those games, with their lone loss being to a great Baltimore team, and even then they contained Lamar Jackson for three and a half quarters. They should be able to contain Jimmy Garoppolo for 4.
Speaking of Jimmy Garoppolo, he’s currently nursing an injury and so is backup quarterback Trey Lance. Their whole roster is hurt, as tight end George Kittle, kick Robbie Gould, and running back Jeff Wilson Jr. are all out. The 49ers haven’t performed well this year with their only victories against the Lions and Eagles, and their biggest win was by just 8 points. They’re in the midst of a 3 game losing streak, have a chance to get upset, and definitely don’t deserve the points they’re getting.
The Colts are 4-2 ATS this year and the 49ers are 1-4 ATS this year.
Tennessee Titans +5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1 Unit) (-110)
Derrick Henry is forcing himself into the MVP conversation this year. He’s simply that much more dominant than every other skill position player as his 921 scrimmage yards are 239 higher than second place, and his 10 touchdowns from scrimmage are 3 more than second place. He’s carried the Titans to some tough victories over Seattle and Buffalo, and he’s the main reason for their 4-2 start to the season. The offense as a whole is cooking as they rank 8th in points and 11th in yards. While their defense isn’t great, they do rank in the top half of the league in pressures, red zone percent, and third down percentage. In other words, they make stops when it matters most and can get to the quarterback.
Since Week 9 of 2020, the Chiefs have only beaten 2 teams by more than 6 points with those two victories against the terrible Eagles and Washington Football Team. By the end of the season the Chiefs will be in the Super Bowl bubble, but right now Patrick Mahomes is playing too sloppily and is at fault for too many unnecessary turnovers. He’s got the second most interceptions with 8, tied for second with Trevor Lawrence and one behind Zach Wilson. The Chiefs also have one of the worst defenses in the league, as they rank bottom 5 in points, yards per play, yards per carry, red zone percentage, and third down percentage.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS this season and the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Over 46.5 (0.5 Units) (-110)
Both the Ravens and Bengals feature hot offenses that can score at will against most of the league, as both teams have scored 24+ points in 4 of 6 games this season. The Bengals have a great mix of offensive personnel with Joe Mixon leading the ground attack and Joe Burrow leading the passing game, who ranks 5th in touchdown passes. Ja’Marr Chase has given the Bengals a true game breaking threat that they sorely needed, and he excels at taking the top off a defense at any moment.
Lamar Jackson is ascending once again and leading the 7th ranked scoring offense to another probable division title. Jackson has more yards by himself than literally half the league. Combined with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, who especially has taken a big leap this season, the Ravens can once again slice you through the air or explosive run plays.