Best Bets for NFL Week 2
New England Patriots -5.5 @ New York Jets (-110) (2 Units)
The Jets have some promise for the future, but this is the present. Against the mediocre-at-best Panthers, the Jets lost by 5 and trailed 16-0 at one point. Bill Belichick comes into town with a 21-5 record against rookie quarterbacks. 18 of those wins have been by a touchdown or more, and 3 of the last 4 by at least 21 points. He won’t let off the gas if they get up big early.
Mac Jones should also benefit by playing an easier Jets defense. He actually had a good game against Miami and played efficiently, finishing with a passer rating of 102.6. Jones was accurate, decisive, and willing to take a hit in the pocket. If not for a Damien Harris fumble at the Dolphins’ 9 yard line, the Patriots likely win the contest.
Starting offensive tackle Mekhi Becton is injured, adding woes to an already questionable offensive line. The Jets gave up 6 sacks and let up pressure on 32.6% of throws to Carolina. I’d bet on Belichick at least matching the pressures and making life for Zach Wilson uncomfortable.
The Patriots have won their last 10 contests against the Jets by an average of 19.5 points.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Stafford and the Rams came out swinging on Monday Night Football. He only missed 6 passes and threw for 4 touchdowns in a 34-14 drubbing of the Bears. Last years’ number 1 defense picked up right where it left off. Against a shaky Andy Dalton still trying to find his footing in the offense, they held the Bears to just 188 passing yards along with 2 turnovers and 3 sacks.
In comes Carson Wentz and the Colts, another new quarterback still finding his footing. The Colts let Wentz get sacked 3 times in a 28-16 defeat by Seattle, and the game never felt that close. After answering the Colts’ first score with a touchdown, the Seahawks always lead by at least 4 points, even winning by as much as 18. Seattle exposed the Colts over the top with two long touchdowns to Tyler Lockett, and the Rams should be able to attack the same way with Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson.
Los Angeles has been one of the most well-run teams since Sean McVay took over. He’s 10-4-1 ATS in September. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a home underdog.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers (-114)
Jameis Winston answered the bell and Sean Payton’s offense looked as smooth as ever. Almost every receiver on the field was undrafted, but Winston managed to throw for 5 touchdowns against Green Bay, including a beautiful 55 yard deep strike to Deonte Harris. Running backs Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones combined for 133 yards, and both backs churned out consistent yardage throughout the afternoon. The Saints put up 38 points against a pretty good defensive team.
The Saints are scary on defense too, as they held Aaron Rodgers and Co. to just 3 points and 229 total yards. The Panthers have some potential on offense, but the Saints have savvy vets all over their defense who have been leading one of the league’s top units the last few years. If the Saints continue their run defense dominance after allowing the Packers only 2.9 yards per carry, then it should put more pressure on Darnold to carry the team. For as great as McCaffrey is, he has only hit 4.0 yards per carry in 2 of his 7 career games against New Orleans.
The Panthers have young studs on defense, but Sean Payton should be able to handle a familiar foe. New Orleans has won their last 4 matchups against the Panthers by at least a field goal and are 18-6 ATS on the road since the start of 2018.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions over 48.5 (-108)
Since Matt LaFluer took over the Packers they have been one of the best teams in the league, going a combined 26-6 before this season. He and Rodgers haven’t taken to losses well, responding with an average of 33 points scored per game coming off of a loss. In that same time span Rodgers has thrown for an average of 2 touchdowns when coming off of a loss, which is also his average when coming off of a 2 interception game in his career.
This is the same Packers offense that scored an average of 36.5 points against the Lions last year, and they might be even worse on defense this year. The 49ers run a similar offensive system to the Packers, and they were able to carve up the Lions for 41 points just last week. The concerns of this offense are overblown. The Packers always struggle against physical and disciplined defenses, of which the Lions are not.
It’s always scary relying on the Lions to do anything, but these Dan Campbell kneecap biters will at the very least fight. Even before the Lions started to score “meaningless” points inside 2 minutes, they put up 17 with completely new faces all over the offense. They ended the day with 33.
If the Packers jump out to an early lead that’s all for the better. The Lions will be forced to throw which should lead to more scoring, even if it’s in garbage time and doesn’t affect the game. The Over is 7-1 in the Lion’s last 8 games following a loss and 6-1 after allowing more than 30 points in the previous game.
All stats are from Covers and Pro Football Reference. All odds are from FanDuel and are at the time of publication.
Up 0.36 units this NFL Season. One unit bet unless otherwise noted.
