Betting On Sports Legends Doubles Real Estate Market Profits
The advent of sports betting is finally here. Legalization is sweeping the United States as more advertisements for DraftKings and Fanduel bombard our sporting events and betting on anything from the first coin toss to the result of the final whistle keeps expanding. Each game is generally a crapshoot against the Vegas odds, but occasionally a dynasty gives the bettor a fantastic opportunity to spread out the risk over multiple years. Think of the combined 17 titles that Nick Saban, LeBron James, and Tom Brady have combined for since 2000.
With consistency like that, it takes a fool not to place a $100 bet on each of Tom Brady, LeBron James, and Nick Saban to win their respective championships and conferences every year. Even if the bets were placed after each person won their first championship, when the odds were by far the lowest and before Vegas had caught on to their greatness, there would still be hefty profit. Sometimes taking a chance on greatness pays off. The proof is in the preseason odds since each of their first title wins.
The list of accolades is endless for Tom Brady – 3x MVP, 3x First Team All-Pro, most games won by a quarterback, most passing yards and passing touchdowns by a quarterback, and most fourth quarter comebacks. However, the most important one when it comes to the discussion of the greatest player ever is the seven Super Bowl wins and 10 appearances, both of which are the most by any player ever.
| Seasons Not Ending in Super Bowl Win: | Seasons Ending in Super Bowl Win: |
| 2002 | 2003 (+1500) |
| 2005 | 2004 (+600) |
| 2006 | 2014 (+650) |
| 2007 | 2016 (+650) |
| 2008 | 2018 (+600) |
| 2009 | 2020 (+1000) |
| 2010 | |
| 2011 | |
| 2012 | |
| 2013 | |
| 2015 | |
| 2017 | |
| 2019 | |
| -$1,300 | +4950 or $4,950 in profit |
The table above shows that the total preseason odds in the seasons Brady has won the Super Bowl since his first “fluke” equal +4950, which means a $100 bet in those years would have profited $4,950. Subtract $1,300 for the thirteen $100 bets in years he didn’t win the Lombardi, and the risk would still fetch a profit of $3,650.
But even the Patriots in their prime didn’t win the Super Bowl every year, as there were the “gap years” from 2005-2013. They made two appearances, but Eli Manning forced his way into the story of NFL history with two heroic performances to win the Giants two Superbowls. To play it safe then, what would happen if $100 bets were made on Tom Brady to simply win the conference and appear in the Super Bowl?
| Seasons Not Endings in Conference Championship: | Seasons Ending in Conference Championship: |
| 2005 | 2003 Patriots (+700) |
| 2006 | 2004 Patriots (+400) |
| 2008 | 2007 Patriots (+175) |
| 2009 | 2011 Patriots (+275) |
| 2010 | 2014 Patriots (+300) |
| 2012 | 2016 Patriots (+275) |
| 2013 | 2017 Patriots (+125) |
| 2015 | 2018 Patriots (+300) |
| 2019 | 2020 Buccaneers (+500) |
| -$900 | +3050 or $3,500 in profit |
The total preseason odds in the seasons Brady won the conference equal to +3050. A $100 bet each year he won would have paid out $3,050 after this year. Subtract $900 for the nine $100 bets in years he didn’t win the Lombardi, and the risk would still fetch a profit of $2,150.
$1,900 total would have been risked in each individual experiment, but the return on investment over the last two decades for betting on him to reach the Superbowl is 192%, and a further 137% ROI for betting on him to win it in that same time frame. The ROI is calculated with the following simple formula:
[(Total odds + ($100 x number of years bet)] – ($100 x total years lost)
$100 x number of years bet
=
Return on investment
Similarly, LeBron James has racked up nonstop awards since entering the NBA straight out of highschool. He’s been a 4x NBA champion, 4x MVP, a 17x All-Star, ranks third in career points, and is a 4x AP Athlete of the Year, just to name a few of his infinite achievements. Considered a basketball prodigy since his teenage years, James has somehow exceeded and surpassed every expectation put out in front of him while cementing himself as a top 3 NBA player of all time. Getting to the NBA Finals was a virtual guarantee for a decade of his career, as he had a streak at one point of eight consecutive finals appearances.
The elephant in the room regarding LeBron James is his lack of a winning NBA Finals pedigree. While Michael Jordan may have him beat in that regard, James still has more rings than many of the all time greats, including Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Furthermore, James only began winning in the Finals for less than a decade. So while the first half of his career was spent on a terrible Cavaliers team, James has finally gotten the requisite talent needed for a title in the last half of his career. Sometimes it’s best to wait until an investment proves it can breakthrough to place your own stake, and that certainly was the case with James since he won his first title.
| Seasons Not Endings in NBA Finals Win: | Seasons Ending in NBA Finals Win: |
| 2013-2014 | 2012-2013 Heat (+225) |
| 2014-2015 | 2015-2016 Cavaliers (+280) |
| 2016-2017 | 2019-2020 Lakers (+450) |
| 2017-2018 | |
| 2018-2019 | |
| -$500 | +955 or $955 in profit |
According to the table above, the total preseason odds in the seasons LeBron won the championship after his first equal to +955, meaning a $100 bet each year he won would have won $955. Subtract $500 for the five $100 bets in years he didn’t, and the risk would still fetch a profit of $455. $800 would have been risked, but the ROI would have been roughly 56.8%.
| Seasons Not Ending in NBA Conference Title: | Seasons Ending in NBA Conference Title: |
| 2018-2019 Lakers | 2012-2013 Heat (-137) |
| 2013-2014 Heat (-120) | |
| 2014-2015 Cavaliers (-115) | |
| 2015-2016 Cavaliers (-230) | |
| 2016-2017 Cavaliers (-208) | |
| 2017-2018 Cavaliers (-165) | |
| 2019-2020 Lakers (+220) | |
| -$100 | +615 or $615 in profit |
Of all the impressive streaks he’s had, the most impressive might be the eight consecutive NBA Finals appearances. In other words, betting on LeBron to reach the finals in the same time span as above would result in only one season where he didn’t reward his bettors a profit. Again, $800 would be risked, $100 lost, and $615 paid out in winning years’ profits for an ROI of 64.4% just to make it out of the poor East.
When it comes to college football, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Nick Saban have been nothing short of the perfect marriage. Before Saban was hired, Alabama was already one of the best programs in college football history and laid claim to 12 national championships. A cold streak in the 80s and 90s resulted in just one NCAAF championship, and it was clear that Alabama needed a new person in charge. Since he was hired in 2007, all Saban has done is prove himself to be one of the greatest college coaches ever by winning an additional 6 national championships in his 14 years at Tuscaloosa.
After dipping his toes in the NFL waters and finding mediocre success, Nick Saban decided to go back to what he knows best: college football. LSU gave him his first title in 2003, but it was SEC Conference rival Alabama who lured him back. Since his first Championship with Alabama in 2009, the standard has been set that winning a National Championship is the bare minimum. From 2009-2012 they won three of those four years. Two years of back to back empty hands after that led some to question if the Saban dynasty was over, but he responded by winning three times in the next six years. The Crimson Tide consistently have the best talent no matter who they play, as Alabama dominates the NFL draft with 127 total players drafted since 2010, 2nd most in that time frame.
| Seasons Not Ending National Championship: | Seasons Ending in National Championship: |
| 2010 | 2011 (+600) |
| 2013 | 2012 (+550) |
| 2014 | 2015 +(700) |
| 2016 | 2017 (+250) |
| 2018 | 2020 (+300) |
| 2019 | |
| -$600 | +2400 or $2,400 in profit |
According to the table above, the total preseason odds in the seasons Alabama won the championship after their first equal to +2400, meaning a $100 bet each year he won would have won $2,400. Subtract $600 for the six $100 bets in years he didn’t, and the risk would still fetch a profit of $1,800. $1,100 would have been risked, but the ROI would have been roughly 163%.
| Seasons Not Ending in SEC Conference Title: | Seasons Ending in SEC Conference Title: |
| 2010 | 2012 (+190) |
| 2011 | 2014 (+140) |
| 2013 | 2015 (+180) |
| 2017 | 2016 (+150) |
| 2019 | 2018 (-160) |
| 2020 (-110) | |
| -$500 | +814 or $814 in profit |
The total preseason odds in the seasons Alabama won the SEC equal to +814. A $100 bet each year he won would have paid out $814 after this year. $500 was lost in years they didn’t win the SEC, but the $1,100 total risk would still fetch a profit of $314, resulting in a conservative ROI of 28.5%.
The safest bet is to rely on all three of these dynasties simultaneously, as placing single bets on the 2016 Cavaliers, the 2017 Patriots, and the 2018 and 2019 Crimson Tide came short of a Championship and would have lost the bettor $400. $3,900 may seem like a lot to risk for sports, but a payout of $9,805 for their Championships and $6,879 for their Conference wins would have still returned 151% and 76%, respectively.
The returns from the championships actually fall in between the S&P 500 (~300%) and the real estate market (72%) since August of 2003, which was Brady’s first preseason after winning the Superbowl. A critic will reference the economic turmoil in the last two decades, namely the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as reasons why “safe investing” in real estate hasn’t outpaced gambling. However, an apologist can easily look at Brady’s ACL tear, the 2005-2013 Superbowl Drought, and the emergence of Clemson and Ohio State as powerhouses in similar fashion to the risks and roller coasters that are bound to come with any financial decision. The most important result is profit, and betting on Brady, James, and Saban to win their leagues has doubled the profitability of the real estate market.
The numbers are in and the result is obvious. Bet on the greats to do what they do best: win.
All odds come from SportsOddsHistory
