Quarterbacks and Defensive Ends Are Overpaid
For a long time in the NFL, it’s been believed you need a quarterback, left tackle, and a star edge rusher to win anything of significance. While all three of these positions have a ton of value, two of them are overpaid in today’s era and that’s the quarterback and defensive end. Front offices have treated the two positions as significantly more valuable than any other position on their side of the ball and aren’t spending appropriately elsewhere.
Quarterback is definitely the most overpaid position in the league and it’s because just about anyone up for a new deal wants to be the highest-paid player in the league and teams typically make them just that. There are currently nine quarterbacks making $29,500,000 a year or more with four at $35,000,000 a year or more. Left tackle is the next highest-paid position on offense and Trent Williams, the position’s top earner, gets $23,010,000 a year. In order to build a championship offense, a quarterback needs at least solid surroundings but that’s only if you have one of the few elite players at quarterback. A good line and solid weaponry need to be assembled.
Tom Brady has won more than anyone else ever has and never accounted for more than 13.6% of his team’s cap space all while having eleven seasons where he accounted for less than 10% of the Patriots cap space during the Brady-Belichick dynasty. Patrick Mahomes is without a doubt the best quarterback in the league, but his huge new deal could very likely help the Chiefs spend themselves out of a dynasty. In 2022 Mahomes will account for 17.2% of the Chiefs cap space, 20.8% in 2023, and 17.3% in 2024. These kinds of percentages are likely to be similar or higher in 2025 and beyond.
The story is very similar elsewhere. Dak Prescott of the Cowboys will account for 15.9% of his team’s cap space in 2022, 19.6% in 2023, and 18.4% in 2024. Russell Wilson this season will be worth 17.5% of the Seahawks cap space, 17.8% in 2022, and in 2023 17.8%. Even Kirk Cousins is accounting for 16.7% of his team’s cap space this season and in 2022 he’s worth 21.6%. Matt Ryan, who is 36 years old, accounts for 14.6% this season, in 2022 an absurd 23.4%, and then in 2023 19.4%. Not every quarterback needs to be the highest-paid guy at the position just because they’re up for an extension and quarterbacks need to realize if they account for so much of the cap space it could be what prevents a dynasty or holds a team like the Seahawks to only one Super Bowl.
Realistically any team that doesn’t have an elite quarterback or guy who is capable of elite play if they have good surroundings should be looking to draft a young prospect if there’s one they believe in. That would give a team more of an ability to walk away from a quarterback wanting too much money. Rookie QB deals being as cheap as they are making this make even more sense. For example this last draft’s top pick Trevor Lawrence will make only $9.1 million compared to having to give over $30,000,000 to a non-rookie. The player could be traded for picks or just not signed again. If you can put a good team around a young prospect and hopefully can get a year or two of development already done before he starts you should be able to get strong results as long as your quarterback pick wasn’t a miss. Bottom line: the way quarterbacks are paid is out of control and needs to be adjusted.
On the defensive side of the ball defensive ends are essentially treated like the quarterbacks of that side in terms of how much higher their pay is to other positions on their side of the ball. It’s not nearly as big a gap as it is for quarterbacks but still a large one. Joey Bosa is the highest-paid defensive end at $27,000,000 a year compared to Aaron Donald, a defensive tackle and the best defensive player in the game who makes $22,500,000. Bosa, while great, has missed 13 games in the last three seasons while Donald has missed only 2 over his entire seven-year career. Jalen Ramsey, the league’s best corner in a passing league, gets $20,000,000 a year. Donald has only missed two games in his career and Ramsey has only five over five years while Bosa has missed seventeen over five years.
Just because Bosa is a defensive end he’ll command more money and when young elite players finish their rookie deals, like TJ Watt, Nick Bosa, and Chase Young, they’ll look to set the record themselves. For example, who knows what Joey Bosa’s younger brother Nick Bosa will command. Interior pressure is every bit as crucial if not more than pressure off the edge. When new young stars at that position are up for extensions they will surpass Donald and he will be even further behind defensive ends.
In PFF’s top 20 grades among defensive linemen, 11 are interior players while 9 are edge. Since 2015 only twice have more defensive ends graded in the top 20 defensively than interior linemen. That shows defensive ends aren’t offering a major performance boost. Pressure from the interior is every bit as important at least if not more than the edge because interior pressure disrupts a quarterback’s pocket.
There are zero reasons for defensive ends and tackles to have a nearly $5,000,000 gap in pay between the highest paid at the position, and especially not when it’s essentially because of where they line up on the line and not performance-based. At other positions it doesn’t seem to matter whether or not the player signing the extension is the best player at the position to be paid the most. Defensive tackle isn’t one of those positions but defensive end is. That’s how the positional spending disparities begin is the practice of paying players based on the position they play just as much or more so as performance.
Elite coverage with a pretty good pass rush is most desirable for today’s game. The biggest problem however is the fact there is no way to truly show an elite corner, defensive end or tackle should make a considerable amount more. Having one elite player at any of those positions can’t make a team good. Defensive backs need a pass rush to perform at a certain level just as pass rushes need coverage to perform at a certain level. No position on defense can impact a team like a quarterback, and offense, in general, is less volatile. No defensive position should be near top quarterback money or significantly higher than other defensive spots. Only two defensive ends are above $25,000,000 a year so adjusting pay among defensive players shouldn’t be as tough as quarterback. Will these adjustments actually happen? Probably not.
All stats are from https://overthecap.com and use each player’s APY.
