Top 3 Upsets For NFL Week 3
Los Angeles Rams moneyline (+105) vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hit: Rams win 34-24
This marquee matchup should provide plenty of entertainment and seeing the Rams as an underdog is a pleasant sight. The Rams are 2-0 and at home so you gotta like those two things especially when the Rams are without any major injuries.
The great play of Matthew Stafford immediately in this offense is a huge bonus and gives the Rams a better chance in these types of games than when they had Goff. Through two games Stafford is 1st in FO’s DVOA at 55.2% and 4th in QBR at 78.1. Right now Stafford has a 69.6% completion rate along with 599 yards, 5 touchdowns, and only 1 interception.
A great defensive line is another bonus when going up against Tom Brady. The Rams have the game’s best defensive player in Aaron Donald who can certainly cause disruption along the interior line which we know Brady hates. Donald is a one-man wrecking crew and we’ve seen it and when a team can cover to compliment that it’s deadly. As of now, the Rams pass rush grades 5th by PFF and their coverage 3rd so giving Brady a hard time isn’t too much to ask for.
Green Bay Packers moneyline (+150) at the San Francisco 49ers
Hit: Packers win 30-28
Sunday night we get a great game between two teams with something to prove. Green Bay is looking to show there’s no reason for panic and for the 49ers their starting QB is out to prove he doesn’t need to be replaced and that he can win them big games.
Offensive line play is a big reason the Packers can pull out this upset. By PFF the Packers offensive line grades 2nd in pass protection and 10th in run blocking. That’s despite getting murdered in week 1. On the other side of the trenches, the 49ers pass rush grades 15th so a good edge is there for the Pack in regards to trying to keep the 49ers off their QB.
Aaron Rodgers the reigning MVP himself gives the Packers an edge as he is certainly much better than Jimmy G and if his line can protect him long enough this 49ers defense could be in trouble. As previously mentioned the 49ers defense is 15th in pass rush and they are 18th overall and 14th in coverage. Run defense for the 49ers’ grades 26th and when the Packers have Aaron Jones to run it things can get messy if Rodgers is on his game as well.
Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (+145) at the Pittsburgh Steelers
Hit: Bengals win 24-10
These two teams couldn’t be in a more different position. The Bengals are young and have a coach trying to prove himself while the Steelers are older particularly at QB and are trying to remain a playoff team.
The Bengals have a defense so far that compares to Pittsburgh’s which is needed when playing against a defensive team as good as the Steelers. In PFF grade the Bengals defense grades 6th and the Steelers 9th. If Cincy can keep it low scoring and not give their offense the burden of needing to score a lot they have a good shot in this game.
The difference in the performance of these two offenses is another nice edge for the Bengals as Big Ben and the Steelers are struggling on offense. PFF grades the Steelers offense 24th while the Bengals are 16th. Big Ben grades 32nd out of 34 qualifying QBs in offensive grade while Burrow is 21st. The Bengals issues seem easier to fix as to where the Steelers could just simply be in for a rough year on offense led by an over-the-hill QB.
All stats and odds are from BetMGM https://www.pff.com https://www.footballoutsiders.com
