What Are Realistic Expectations For Pistons Fans?
The off-season action is done and we’re another day closer to the start of the season. Pistons fans finally have a reason to be excited entering the year. Cade Cunningham is obviously the reason for the hype, but what should be expected from this year’s team? A ceiling and floor exist for any team and for Pistons fans you have to wonder just how much Cade moves the team up the standings – if at all.
The roster doesn’t inspire hope outside of Cunningham and Jerami Grant, who had his flashes in his first year as a starter. Last season’s first-round pick Killian Hayes is likely to start at point guard with Cade at the two, but that isn’t a great option. Hayes didn’t look like much and doesn’t seem at all like a scorer. This experiment – instead of letting Cunningham run the point with Saddiq Bey at the two – will cost them wins from what would not be a high number to begin with.
This team was 20-52 last year good for the second-worst record in the league, so the arrival of Cade mixed with the improvement of second-year players Bey, Hayes, and center Isaiah “Beef Stew” Stewart’s development is what their improvement depends on. That and hopefully getting Jerami Grant to play at least as well as he did last year. Hayes shouldn’t be expected to be anything other than a passer and Beef Stew likely won’t provide a bunch in the scoring department either. The scoring production will need to come from Cade, Bey, and Grant.
Grant averaged 22.3 points per game a year ago on 42.9% shooting overall and 35% from three while adding 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Saddiq Bey averaged 12.2 points per game on 40.4% shooting overall and 38% from three. Bey showed signs of promise but just how good he can be we really don’t know. Last season Grant attempted 17.4 shots per game and Bey took 9.9 shots a game. How do those numbers change with Cade in the mix and especially if Bey does start breaking out? Either way, Grant needs to be a more efficient scorer.
As far as what to expect from star rookie Cunningham, let’s keep in mind even Luka Doncic in his rookie year put up 21 a game. If Cade scores 21 a game he’ll probably be the most efficient scorer on the team as he shot 40% from three last year at Oklahoma State. Cunningham is good enough to have a rookie year like Luka’s, but how much better does that make the Pistons? I’d say it’s the difference in 20 wins and 35-38 wins at most with what the Pistons have Cade surrounded with.
The numbers show a pretty rough team from a year ago. In points per 100 possessions offensively the Pistons were 26th at 108.4 which was nearly two full points lower than the next closest team, and defensively in points per 100, they were 18th at 113.2. Effective field goal percentage shows a similar story as offensively the Pistons were 27th at 52% and on defense 17th at 54.3%. The Pistons committed turnovers at the 4th highest rate(15.2%) and created them at a league-average rate of 14.1%. The Pistons put up the 21st (32.9 per game) most threes, had the 16th highest three-point attempt rate at 38.5%, and made them at the 22nd highest rate (35.1%). This team was bad at the free-throw line as well shooting 75.9% ranking 24th.
Basically, this is a team that was close to the middle of the pack on defense while their offense was a shitshow. Cunningham will certainly help the offense in particular from three, but this team likely needs Saddiq Bey to have a pretty big year two along with Jerami Grant getting a tad more efficient to have a good enough offense to actually be a good team.
The ceiling for this team is flirting with a playoff appearance because they play in the weak East, but as mentioned earlier 35-38 wins is probably a good target number. A good floor projection would probably be 30 wins. The future is very bright for Detroit but year one with Cade shouldn’t have too high of expectations.
